Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
